In this paper, we develop a momentum trading strategy based on the low frequency trend component of the spot exchange rate. Using, alternately, kernel regression and the high-pass filter of Hodrick and Prescott (1997), we recover the non-linear trend in the monthly exchange rate and use...

There has recently been renewed interest in the intraday range (defined as the difference between the intraday high and low prices) as a measure of local volatility. Recent studies have shown that estimates of volatility based on the range are significantly more efficient than estimates based on...

Models of the time-varying conditional minimum-variance hedge ratio (MVHR) typically do not provide a significant improvement in terms of hedging performance over the unconditional MVHR model. In view of the widely documented success of conditional volatility models (on which models of the...

This paper tests the expectations hypothesis of the term structure using cross-section bond yield data. A long series of monthly cross-section regressions is estimated using zero coupon bond yields for maturities from two months to thirty-five years. The expectations hypothesis is tested using...

The expectations hypothesis of the term structure of interest rates implies that the spread between short and long bond yields should forecast next period's change in the long yield. Regression based tests have systematically rejected the expectations hypothesis, with estimated coefficients far...

In this paper, we show that although minimum-variance hedging unambiguously reduces the standard deviation of portfolio returns, it tends to increase portfolio kurtosis and consequently the effectiveness of hedging in terms of a more general measure of risk such as VaR is uncertain. We compare...

The non-normality of financial asset returns has important implications for hedging. In particular, in contrast with the unambiguous effect that minimum-variance hedging has on the standard deviation, it can actually increase the negative skewness and kurtosis of hedge portfolio returns. Thus...

The expectations hypothesis of the term structure has been decisively rejected by a large empirical literature that spans several decades. In this paper, using a newly constructed dataset of synthetic zero coupon bond yields, we show that evidence against the expectations hypothesis became very...

In this paper, we document a very strong day-of-the-month effect in the performance of momentum strategies in the foreign exchange market. We show that this seasonality in trading strategy performance is attributable to seasonality in the conditional volatility of foreign exchange returns, and...

In this paper, we investigate the long run dynamics of the intraday range of the GBP/USD, JPY/USD and CHF/USD exchange rates. We use a non-parametric filter to extract the low frequency component of the intraday range, and model the cyclical deviation of the range from the long run trend as a...