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The forecasting horizon of inflationary expectations and perceptions in the EU. Is it really 12 months?

Jonung, Lars; Lindén, Staffan - Nationalekonomiska Institutionen, Ekonomihögskolan - 2011

inflationary expectations as well as on inflationary perceptions has been collected in a unified way on an EU-wide basis for … inflation during the coming 12 months. The analysis covers all EU member states that have relevant data. We examine the forecast …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008799782

The forecasting horizon of inflationary expectations and perceptions in the EU – Is it really 12 months?

Jonung, Lars; Linden, Staffan - Directorate-General Economic and Financial Affairs, … - 2010

We use survey based inflationary expectations to explore the forecasting horizons implicitly used by the respondents to questions about the expected rate of inflation during the coming 12 months. We examine the forecast errors, the mean error and the RMSEs, to study if the forecast horizon is...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008854217

DSGE models for developing economies: an application to Morocco

Lahcen, Mohammed Ait - Volkswirtschaftliche Fakultät, … - 2014

In this thesis we try to understand the impact of some macroeconomic features of developing economies, in particular the existence of a large informal sector, on the reaction of these economies to different shocks. In order to achieve this objective, we derive a simple New Keynesian Small Open...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011240203

Forecasting and policy making

Wieland, Volker; Wolters, Maik Hendrik - House of Finance, Goethe Universität Frankfurt am Main - 2012

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010955284

S,s pricing in a dynamic equilibrium model with heterogeneous sectors

Damjanovic, Vladislav; Nolan, Charles - In: Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control 36 (2012) 4, pp. 550-567

We study the impact of two-sided nominal shocks in a dynamic, equilibrium macroeconomic model. Goods complementarity differs across sectors as do the costs of changing prices. Even when strategic complementarities are equal across the sectors, the systematic differences in costs of price...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010577443

The Great Inflation: Did the Shadow Know Better?

Poole, William; Rasche, Robert H.; Wheelock, David C. - National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) - 2011

The Shadow Open Market Committee was formed in 1973 in response to rising inflation and the apparent unwillingness of U.S. policymakers to implement policies necessary to maintain price stability. This paper describes how the Committee's policy views differed from those of most Federal Reserve...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008876847

Leading Indicators of Growth and Inflation in Turkey

Leigh, Daniel - 2006

Growth and inflation in Turkey have been volatile over the last two decades. It would, therefore, be useful to identify indicators that anticipate economic conditions and inflation. This paper investigates the predictive performance of economic indicators for inflation and real output growth in...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012782443

Analysing and forecasting price dynamics across euro area countries and sectors: A panel VAR approach

Dees, Stephane; Güntner, Jochen - Institut für Volkswirtschaftslehre, … - 2014

sectors - industry, services, construction, and agriculture - across the four largest euro area economies - Germany, France …, Italy and Spain - and the euro area as a whole. By modelling prices together with real activity, employment and wages, we …, we also allow for spillovers to the other euro area countries in our sample. …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011075752

Funciones de transferencia simultáneas del índice de precios al consumo de bienes elaborados no energéticos

Matea, María de los Llanos - Banco de España - 1989

This document presents a multivariate transfer function model for two components of CPI, the processed food and non-energy industrial goods, where the component of consumption goods of industrial price index (i.e. wholesale prices) is used as a leading indicator. We find that inflation rates of...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008520558

Spekulative Preisentwicklung an den Immobilienmärkten: Elemente eines Frühwarnsystems

Dreger, Christian; Kholodilin, Konstantin A. - In: DIW Wochenbericht 78 (2011) 37/38, pp. 2-9

Von spekulativen Übertreibungen an den Vermögensmärkten können erhebliche makroökonomische Verluste für Produktion und Beschäftigung ausgehen. Solche Entwicklungen sollten möglichst frühzeitig und verlässlich erkannt werden, um eine Gegensteuerung durch entsprechende...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011128707