Changes in residual volatility in vector autoregressive (VAR) models can be used for identifying structural shocks in a structural VAR analysis. Testable conditions are given for full identification for the case where the volatility changes can be modelled by a multivariate GARCH process. Formal...

Detecting contagion during financial crises requires demarcation of crisis periods. This paper presents a method for endogeneous dating of both the start and finish of crises, coupled with the statistical detection of contagion effects. We couple smooth transition functions with structural GARCH...

We study market illiquidity across 11 national markets of the Balkans. In general, the EU member countries are more liquid than the nonmember countries. Turkey, however, has the most liquid market, while Serbia and Bosnia are the least liquid. Global illiquidity sourced from the US has a strong...

Empirical research shows that stock volatilities and correlations between markets rise more after negative shocks than after positive returns shocks of the same size. We measure the importance of these asymmetric effects for mean-variance investors holding portfolios of international equities...

Equity markets do not pass all overnight information into prices instantaneously at the opening of trade. The New York market takes up to 30 minutes after the opening time to absorb overnight foreign news, Tokyo takes about 90 minutes, and London about 120 minutes on average. These delays in...

A new model is developed that augments a structural VAR specification with a GARCH covariance matrix. The model is utilised to study time series dependencies between three size-sorted portfolios from the Australian Stock Exchange. Even after accounting for contemporaneous correlations the...

This paper aims to explain changes in real house prices in Australia from 1970 to 2003. We develop and estimate a long-run equilibrium model that shows the real long-run economic determinants of house prices and a short-run asymmetric error correction model to represent house price changes in...

We use the cost-of-carry model to investigate the extent of market efficiency in the EU futures market for carbon dioxide allowances over the period of June 2005 to December 2007. We reject the cost-of-carry hypothesis for the entire data sample, but find some evidence of improvement in market...

We propose an identified structural GARCH model to disentangle the dynamics of financial market crises. We distinguish between the hypersensitivity of a domestic market in crisis to news from foreign non-crisis markets, and the contagion imported to a tranquil domestic market from foreign...