A new version of the RE–EM regression tree method for longitudinal and clustered data is presented. The RE–EM tree is a methodology that combines the structure of mixed effects models for longitudinal and clustered data with the flexibility of tree-based estimation methods. The RE–EM tree...

Department: Business.

We introduce a novel approach to optimal investment-reinsurance problems of an insurance company facing model uncertainty via a game theoretic approach. The insurance company invests in a capital market index whose dynamics follow a geometric Brownian motion. The risk process of the company is...

We propose a novel empirical framework to assess the likelihood of joint and conditional failure for Euro area sovereigns. Our model is based on a dynamic skewed-t copulawhich captures all the salient features of the data, including skewed and heavy-tailed changes in the price of CDS protection...

We present a simple new methodology to allow for time variation in volatilities using a recursive updating scheme similar to the familiar RiskMetrics approach. We update parameters using the score of the forecasting distribution rather than squared lagged observations. This allows the parameter...

We propose a new model for dynamic volatilities and correlations of skewed and heavy-tailed data. Our model endows the Generalized Hyperbolic distribution with time-varying parameters driven by the score of the observation density function. The key novelty in our approach is the fact that the...