Abel (2002) shows that pessimism and doubt in the subjective distribution of the growth rate of consumption reduce the risk-free rate puzzle and the equity premium puzzle. We quantify the amount of pessimism and doubt in survey data on US consumption and income. Individual forecasters are, in...

This paper is a selective survey of new or recent methods to extract information about market expectations from asset prices for monetary policy purposes. Traditionally, interest rates and forward exchange rates have been used to extract expected means of future interest rates, exchange rates...

Survey and option data are used to take a new look at the equity premium puzzle. Survey data on equity returns (Livingston survey) shows much lower expected excess returns than ex post data. At the same time, option data (CBOE's VIX) indicates that investors overestimate the volatility of equity...

Historical estimates of the Fisher effect and the informational content in the yield curve may not be relevant after a change in monetary policy. This paper uses a small dynamic rational expectations model with staggered price setting to study how central bank preferences (and thereby monetary...

Recent research suggests that commonly estimated dynamic Taylor rules augmented with a lagged interest rate imply too much predictability of interest rate changes compared with yield curve evidence. We show that this is not sufficient proof against the Taylor rule: the result could be driven by...

Using an empirical New-Keynesian model with optimal discretionary monetary policy, we calibrate key parameters--the central bank's preference parameters; the degree of forward-looking behavior in the determination of inflation and output; and the variances of inflation and output shocks--to...

This paper provides evidence on the use of stochastic discount factors in the evaluation of portfolio performance. First we discuss evaluation in this setting, and relates it to traditional mean-variance analysis. We then use Monte Carlo experiments to examine the small sample properties of...

This paper is a selective survey of new or recent methods to extract information about market expectations from asset prices for monetary policy purposes. Traditionally, interest rates and forward exchange rates have been used to extract expected means of future interest rates, exchange rates...

We provide a comprehensive study of the liquidity of spot foreign exchange (FX) rates over more than two decades and a large cross-section of currencies. First, we show that FX liquidity can be accurately measured with daily and readily-available data. Second, we demonstrate that FX liquidity...

We examine the activity and performance of a large panel of individual investors (approximately 70,000 investors and their daily returns over the 2000 to 2010 period) in Sweden's Premium Pension System. We document strong inertia in individuals' choices and changes of mutual funds. We find that...