This paper extends the existing literature on empirical research in the field of sovereign debt. To the authors' knowledge, only one study in the area of sovereign debt has used a variety of statistical methodologies to test the reliability of their predictions and to compare their performance...

This paper examines the extent to which the daily movements of three large emerging markets stock indices are predictable. Lagged technical indicators are used as explanatory variables. In the analysis we employed seven classification techniques and assessed the discriminatory power of the...

We use a machine learning algorithm called Adaboost to find direction-of-change patterns for the Samp;P 500 index using daily prices from 1962 to 2004. The patterns are able to identify periods to take long and short positions in the index. This result, however, can largely be explained by...

Previous empirical studies have shown that predictive regressions in which model uncertainty is assessed and propagated generate desirable properties when predicting out-of-sample. However, it is still not clear (a) what the important conditioning variables for predicting stock returns...

We examine the relation between monthly stock returns and lagged publicly available information. Our primary objective is to determine whether the variables proposed in the literature to predict the equity premium contain incremental information to an investor. We find that certain variables do...

After analysing the evolution of exports from the large Latin American countries over the last decade, and examining on a case by case basis the determinants for each country’s performance, this study concludes that competitiveness in the manufacturing sectors of most countries in...

Tras analizar conjuntamente la evolucion de las exportaciones de los principales paises latinoamericanos en la ultima decada y examinar caso a caso los determinantes del desempeno de cada pai­s, este estudio concluye que la competitividad del sector manufacturero en la mayoria de los paises...

In this paper we develop a framework to analyze the optimal policy of an inflation-targeting monetary authority that is not fully confident about its model and the degree of mistrust changes over time as the structure of the economy changes. These changes can include structural breaks as well as...