We study the inflation uncertainty reported by individual forecasters in the Survey of Professional Forecasters 1969-2001. Three popular measures of uncertainty built from survey data are analyzed in the context of models for forecasting and asset pricing, and improved estimation methods are...

This paper focuses on the coordination problem among countries imposing controls on capital inflows. In a simple model of capital flows and controls, we show that inflow restrictions distort international capital flows to other countries and that, in turn, such capital flow deflection may lead...

We summarize some methods useful in formulating and solving Hansen-Sargent robust control problems, and suggest extensions to discretionary and simple rule policies. Matlab and Gauss software is provided. Applications to the term structure of interest rates and to the time inconsistency of...

This paper demonstrates that the class of conditionally linear and Gaussian state-space models offers a general and convenient framework for simultaneously handling nonlinearity, structural change and outliers in time series. Many popular nonlinear time series models, including threshold, smooth...

We propose a theoretical framework for analyzing the problems associated to unilateral immigration policy in receiving countries and for evaluating the grounds for reform of international institutions governing immigration. We build a model with multiple destination countries and show that...

We study immigration policy in a small receiving economy under self-selection of migrants. We show that a non-discriminatory immigration policy choice affects and is affected by the migratory decisions of skilled and unskilled foreign workers. From this interaction multiple equilibria may arise,...

This paper studies the relationship between export policy and food prices. We show that, when individuals are loss averse, food exporters may use trade policy to shield the domestic economy from large price shocks. This creates a complementarity between the price of food in international markets...

This paper proposes and empirically tests a theory of entrepreneurial innovation in order to explain its high degree of concentration in space and time. In the model, a successful entrepreneurial project is the result of a search and matching process between entrepreneurs looking for funds and...