The evidence is broadly supportive of an asset view of speculative attacks and the importance of the variance of monetary aggregates in predicting currency crises, but it cast some doubt on existing theories. The literature on speculative attacks has been given new impetus by the collapse of the...

This paper presents a framework for the quantitative analysis of individual income dynamics, mobility, and welfare, with ex ante identical individuals facing a stochastic income process and market incompleteness, implying that they are unable to insure against persistent shocks to income. We...

Governments are resource- and bandwidth-constrained, and hence need to prioritize productivity-enhancing policies. To do so requires information on the nature and magnitude of market failures on the one hand, and government's capacity to redress them successfully on the other. This article...

This paper presents an alternative method of testing for financial capital mobility in the absence of forward exchange markets. A model of domestic interest rate determination during liberalization is applied to Korean and Taiwanese data. A variety of diagnostic and recursive tests are used to...

Using the methodology developed by Fama (1990) and Schwert (1990), we measure the degree to which six of the largest emerging equity markets in Latin America and Asia are rational in the sense that they incorporate domestic and global shocks to future expected cash flows and time- variation in...

Using the methodology developed by Fama (1990) and Schwert (1990), we measure the degree to which six of the largest emerging equity markets in Latin America and Asia are rational in the sense that they incorporate domestic and global shocks to future expected cash flows and time- variation in...

The authors employ propensity score matching and a traditional control function approach to examine the impact of participation in various societal institutions on microfirm performance in Mexico. They find that firms that participate in credit markets, receive training, pay taxes, and belong to...

El informe destaca los avances logrados en materia de inflación y, a pesar de cierta resistencia en el tramo final, la consiguiente caída de las tasas de interés, que aliviarán la presión sobre el servicio de la deuda y las inversiones. No obstante, se prevé que el crecimiento siga siendo...

Using non-linear methods, we argue that existing estimates of government spending multipliers in expansion and recession may yield biased results by ignoring whether government spending is increasing or decreasing. In the case of OECD countries, the problem originates in the fact that, contrary...

Using non-linear methods, we argue that existing estimates of government spending multipliers in expansion and recession may yield biased results by ignoring whether government spending is increasing or decreasing. In the case of OECD countries, the problem originates in the fact that, contrary...