References to policy credibility, particularly with regard to fiscal policy, are ubiquitous in both economic literature and financial markets, even though it is not directly observable. The case of the EU new member states (NMS) - emerging markets joining a supranational entity that is generally...

In recent years financial globalization and benign global market conditions have helped emerging markets in their external financing and budgetary positions. This paper examines three related issues: (i) the importance of the impact of the benign financial environment on fiscal performance; (ii)...

Credit Default Swap spreads have been used as a leading indicator of distress. Default probabilities can be extracted from CDS spreads, but during distress it is important to take account of the stochastic nature of recovery value. The recent episodes of Landbanski, WAMU and Lehman illustrate...

We use the IMF's Global Fiscal Model to evaluate recent proposals to reform social security and the tax system in the United States. Introducing personal retirement accounts is unlikely to yield significant macroeconomic benefits unless it spurs additional fiscal consolidation to prevent a large...

This paper undertakes an investigation into the efficiency of the crude oil futures market and the forecasting accuracy of futures prices. Efficiency of the market is analysed in terms of the expected excess returns to speculation in the futures market. Accuracy of futures prices is compared...

This paper examines the extent to which there has been convergence in real per capita incomes across developing countries during the last two decades. In the analysis particular emphasis is placed on the separate roles played by private and public sector investment in determining both the extent...

This paper examines factors determining the allocation of bank credit to the enterprise sector, and the implications of this allocation for aggregate supply and macro-economic performance, in the former socialist economies. It first develops a model to explain how changes in demand for money by...

This paper explores the ability of portfolio and foreign direct investment flows to track movements in the euro and the yen against the dollar. Net portfolio flows from the euro area into U.S. stocks - possibly reflecting differences in expected productivity growth - track movements in the euro...

This paper discusses a pure form of financial contagion, unrelated to economic fundamentals - investors' shifting appetite for risk. It provides an analytical framework for identifying changes in investors' risk appetite and discusses whether it is possible to directly measure them in a way that...