This paper proposes the use of data on expectations to identify the role of news shocks in business cycles. This approach exploits the fact that news shocks cause agents to adjust their expectations about the future even when current fundamentals are not affected, therefore, data on expectations...

This paper uses the World Bank Long-Term Growth Model and extensions to study Peru's long-term growth prospects and its potential to attain high-income economy status. Under a business-as-usual baseline, Peru's potential GDP growth declines slowly from 2.1 to 1.7 percent over the next two...

Although government banks are frequently associated with political capture and resource misallocation, they may be well-positioned during times of crisis to provide counter-cyclical support. Following the collapse of Lehman Brothers in September 2008, Brazil׳s government banks substantially...

While the finance literature often equates government banks with political capture and capital misallocation, these banks can help mitigate financial shocks. This paper examines the role of Brazil’s government banks in preventing a recession during the 2008-2010 financial crisis. Government...

Localities in developed countries often restrict construction and population growth through regulations governing land usage, lot sizes, building heights, and frontage requirements. In developing countries, such policies are less effective because of the existence of unregulated, informal...

Localities in developed countries often enact regulations to deter low-income households from moving in. In developing countries, such restrictions lead to the emergence of informal housing sectors. To deter low-income migrants, localities in developing countries withhold public services to the...

The 1990s appreciation of the US$ has been blamed on the 'irrational exuberance' of investors in the US IT boom. A core of these investors appeared to believe that technology-related productivity growth (due, in part, to knowledge spill-over externalities) would raise the relative US rate of...

Should fiscal consolidations be front-loaded or proceed at a more steady pace, and how does this affect growth? We make an attempt to address this question using a three-step methodology. First, we modify a standard regression of growth on consolidation size to allow speed to affect the...