This paper uses the momentum threshold autoregressive (MTAR) model and the residuals-augmented Dickey-Fuller (RADF) test to examine the possibility of Evans' (1991) periodically collapsing bubbles in the equity REIT market. The results are mixed. The MTAR model indicates that overall real equity...

It is well known that volatility persistence is overestimated if regime shifts are not accounted for in the standard GARCH model. This research detects time periods of sudden changes in variance using the iterated cumulated sums of squares (ICSS) algorithm. Using weekly data for the Canadian...

Considerable attention has been given to examining the information content of the paper-bill spread in terms of predicting U.S. real economic activity. However, the results have been mixed. This paper examines the robustness of the paper-bill spread as an indicator variable of real output growth...

This article employs a recently developed time-series econometric technique to examine the magnitude and persistence of unanticipated changes in real output on unemployment rates by race and gender. Through the use of generalized impulse response analysis, we measure the extent to which the...

The spread between the rates on commercial paper and Treasury bills has received considerable attention in the literature for its role as an indicator of real economic activity. In this paper we empirically examine what happens when the volatility of the spread changes over time. We estimate a...