This paper addresses the statistical properties of time series driven by rational bubbles a la Blanchard and Watson (1982). Using insights on the behavior of multiplicative stochastic processes, we demonstrate that the tails of the unconditional distribution emerging from such bubble processes...

This paper offers a new class of models for the term structure of forward interest rates. We allow each instantaneous forward rate to be driven by a different stochastic shock, but constrain the shocks so that the forward rate curve is kept continuous. We term the shocks to the forward curve...

This paper offers a new class of models for the term structure of forward interest rates. We allow each instantaneous forward rate to be driven by a different stochastic shock, but constrain the shocks so that the forward rate curve is kept continuous. We term the shocks to the forward curve...

This paper offers a precise analytical characterization of the distribution of returns for a portfolio constituted of assets whose returns are described by an arbitrary joint multivariate distribution. In this goal, we introduce a non-linear transformation that maps the returns onto gaussian...

Using synthetic tests performed on time series with time dependence in the volatility with both Pareto and Stretched-Exponential distributions, it is shown that for samples of moderate sizes the standard generalized extreme value (GEV) estimator is quite inefficient due to the possibly slow...

We present a new Monte-Carlo methodology to forecast the crude oil production of Norway and the U.K. based on a two-step process, (i) the nonlinear extrapolation of the current/past performances of individual oil fields and (ii) a stochastic model of the frequency of future oil field...