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Nowcasting Regional GDP: The Case of the Free State of Saxony
Henzel, Steffen; Lehmann, Robert; Wohlrabe, Klaus - Volkswirtschaftliche Fakultät, … - 2015
We tackle the nowcasting problem at the regional level using a large set of indicators (regional, national and …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011267848
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Nowcasting Regional GDP: The Case of the Free State of Saxony
Henzel, Steffen; Lehmann, Robert; Wohlrabe, Klaus - CESifo - 2015
We tackle the nowcasting problem at the regional level using a large set of indicators (regional, national and …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011273092
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Forecasting Macroeconomic Variables using Collapsed Dynamic Factor Analysis
Brauning, Falk; Koopman, Siem Jan - Tinbergen Instituut - 2012
nowcasting and forecasting purposes. Given a dynamic factor model as the data generation process, we provide Monte Carlo evidence …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011257430
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Real-Time Nowcasting Nominal GDP Under Structural Break
Barnett, William A.; Chauvet, Marcelle; Leiva-Leon, Danilo - Volkswirtschaftliche Fakultät, … - 2014
This paper provides early assessments of current U.S. Nominal GDP growth, which has been considered as a potential new monetary policy target. The nowcasts are computed using the exact amount of information that policy makers have available at the time predictions are made. However, real time...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011112417
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Real-Time Nowcasting Nominal GDP Under Structural Break
Barnett, William; Chauvetz, Marcelle; Leiva-Leonx, Danilo - Department of Economics, University of Kansas
This paper provides early assessments of current U.S. Nominal GDP growth, which has been con- sidered as a potential new monetary policy target. The nowcasts are computed using the exact amount of information that policy makers have available at the time predictions are made. However, real time...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010900186
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Short-term forecasting of the Japanese economy using factor models
Godbout, Claudia; Lombardi, Marco J. - European Central Bank - 2012
While the usefulness of factor models has been acknowledged over recent years, little attention has been devoted to the forecasting power of these models for the Japanese economy. In this paper, we aim at assessing the relative performance of factor models over different samples, including the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010538810
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Short-term forecasting of the Japanese economy using factor models
Godbout, Claudia; Lombardi, Marco J. - European Central Bank - 2012
While the usefulness of factor models has been acknowledged over recent years, little attention has been devoted to the forecasting power of these models for the Japanese economy. In this paper, we aim at assessing the relative performance of factor models over different samples, including the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010686833
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Regional Economic Forecasting: State-of-the-Art Methodology and Future Challenge
Lehmann, Robert; Wohlrabe, Klaus - CESifo - 2014
Over the last decade, the topic of regional economic forecasting has become increasingly prevalent in academic literature. The most striking problem in this context is data availability at a regional level. However, considerable methodological improvements have been made to address this problem....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011103393
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MIDAS and bridge equations
Schumacher, Christian - Deutsche Bundesbank - 2014
multi-step nowcasting tool, whereas bridge equations are based on iterated forecasts; 2) MIDAS equations employ empirical … set for nowcasting includes the most recent indicator observations in both approaches. To discuss the differences between … models are compared in an empirical application to nowcasting GDP growth in the Euro area given a large set of business cycle …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011093850
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Weather, the Forgotten Factor in Business Cycle Analyses
Döhrn, Roland; an de Meulen, Philipp - Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für … - 2015
In periods of unusual weather, forecasters face a problem of interpreting economic data: Which part goes back to the underlying economic trend and which part arises from a special weather effect? In this paper, we discuss ways to disentangle weather-related from business cycle-related influences...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011206297