We estimate by Bayesian inference the mixed conditional heteroskedasticity model of (Haas, Mittnik, and Paolella 2004a). We construct a Gibbs sampler algorithm to compute posterior and predictive densities. The number of mixture components is selected by the marginal likelihood criterion. We...

We propose a dynamic portfolio selection model that maximizes expected returns subject to a Value-at-Risk constraint. The model allows for time varying skewness and kurtosis of portfolio distributions estimating the model parameters by weighted maximum likelihood in a increasing window setup. We...

Most academic studies on performance persistence in monthly mutual fund returns do not find evidence for timing skills of fund managers. Furthermore, realized returns are undoubtedly driven by the investment style of a fund. We propose a new holdings-based measure of style rotation to...

We propose a new multivariate volatility model where the conditional distribution of a vector time series is given by a mixture of multivariate normal distributions. Each of these distributions is allowed to have a time-varying covariance matrix. The process can be globally covariance-stationary...

We develop a Markov-switching GARCH model (MS-GARCH) wherein the conditional mean and variance switch in time from one GARCH process to another. The switching is governed by a hidden Markov chain. We provide sufficient conditions for geometric ergodicity and existence of moments of the process....

In this paper we estimate density functions for positive multivariate data. We propose a semiparametric approach. The estimator combines gamma kernels or local linear kernels, also called boundary kernels, for the estimation of the marginal densities with semiparametric copulas to model the...

We develop univariate regime-switching GARCH (RS-GARCH) models wherein the conditional variance switches in time from one GARCH process to another. The switching is governed by a time-varying probability, specified as a function of past information. We provide sufficient conditions for...

GARCH volatility models with fixed parameters are too restrictive for long time series due to breaks in the volatility process. Flexible alternatives are Markov-switching GARCH and change-point GARCH models. They require estimation by MCMC methods due to the path dependence problem. An unsolved...

Most recent empirical option valuation studies build on the affine square root (SQR) stochastic volatility model. The SQR model is a convenient choice, because it yields closed-form solutions for option prices. However, relatively little is known about the resulting biases. We investigate...

When the relationship between observed fixed-income securities and the latent state variables in dynamic term structure models is nonlinear, existing studies usually linearize this relationship because nonlinear filtering is computationally demanding. We propose the use of the unscented Kalman...