In this article an asymmetric autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (ARCH) model is applied to some well-known financial indices (DAX30, FTSE20, FTSE100 and SP500), using a rolling sample of constant size, in order to investigate whether the values of the estimated parameters of the...

This paper analyses several volatility models by examining their ability to forecast Value-at-Risk (VaR) for two different time periods and two capitalization weighting schemes. Specifically, VaR is calculated for large and small capitalization stocks, based on Dow Jones (DJ) Euro Stoxx indices...

A number of ARCH models are considered in the framework of evaluating the performance of a method for model selection based on a standardized prediction error criterion (SPEC). According to this method, the ARCH model with the lowest sum of squared standardized forecasting errors is selected for...

In statistical modelling contexts, the use of one-step-ahead prediction errors for testing hypotheses on the forecasting ability of an assumed model has been widely considered. Quite often, the testing procedure requires independence in a sequence of recursive standardized prediction errors,...

Volatility prediction is the key variable in forecasting the prices of options, value-at-risk and, in general, the risk that investors face. By estimating not only inter-day volatility models that capture the main characteristics of asset returns, but also intra-day models, we were able to...

This article examines hedging in South African stock index futures market. The hedge ratios are estimated by six econometric techniques: the standard OLS regression, simple and vector error correction models, the ECM with generalised autoregressive heteroskedasticity (GARCH), as well as...

The paper investigates the time-varying correlation between the EU12-wide business cycle and the initial EU12 member-countries based on scalar-BEKK and multivariate Riskmetrics model frameworks for the period 1980-2009. The paper provides evidence that changes in the business cycle...

This paper examines the effect of return dispersion on the dynamics of stock market liquidity, risk and return. Moreover, the importance of return dispersion in forecasting aggregate economic activity is rediscovered in the context of a regime switching model that accounts for stock market...