The house-money effect -people´s tendency to be more daring with easily-gotten money- is abehavioral pattern that poses questions about the external validity of experiments in economics: to what extent do people behave in experiments like they would have in a real-life situation, given that...

Le marché du travail se trouve désormais au cœur de la politique monétaire des États-Unis. Les auteurs analysent les débats actuels au sein de la Fed et les défis auxquels celle-ci est confrontée.

The Great Recession endured by the main industrialized countries during the period 2008–2009, in the wake of the financial and banking crisis, has pointed out the major role of the financial sector on macroeconomic fluctuations. In this respect, many researchers have started to reconsider the...

Facing several economic and financial uncertainties, assessing accurately global economic conditions is a great challenge for economists. The International Monetary Fund proposes within its periodic World Economic Outlook report a measure of the global GDP annual growth, that is often considered...

Business surveys are an important element in the analysis of the short-term economic situation because of the timeliness and nature of the information they convey. Especially, surveys are often involved in econometric models in order to provide an early assessment of the current state of the...

Les series chronologiques de trafic ou de ventes de titres de la RATP sont souvent perturbes par des evenements speciaux. Lors de la modelisation d'une serie, l'analyse d'intervention (Box et Tiao (1975)) prend en compte ces interventions exterieures et fournit une mesure de l'impact de...

In this paper, we analyze macro-financial linkages in the euro area by implementing an innovative factor-augmented probit model estimated using a large database. In particular, our model specification enables the identification of the leading influence of financial variables on euro area...

Depuis la récession économique mondiale de 2008-2009, les méthodes de prévision des cycles économiques ont été largement reconsidérées. Le dernier séminaire de l’International Institute of Forecasters, organisé par la Banque de France les 1er et 2 décembre 2011 à Paris, a été...

The debate on the forecasting ability in economics of non-linear models has a long history, and the Great Recession provides us with an opportunity for a re-assessment of the forecasting performance of several classes of non-linear models, widely used in applied macroeconomic research. In this...