"Oppositional Analysis" - the name I give to the metaphysics presented in this volume - proposes a number of dichotomies through which one may analyze and understand systematically the structure of every level of reality. Macroeconomic theory, as well as social research, are two excellent stages...

This set of three volumes argues that the mind – human consciousness – may be measured by considering mathematically the aggregate of that consciousness, i.e. social history. From this beginning theme of discussion three questions must arise. 1. How might this measurement be made? 2. Of what...

I argue that a form of consciousness may be found in American economic history, one which is both mathematically demonstrable and important. In this book I present a model of economic and political growth based upon systematic addition. We begin with a philosophic model of trade (pp. 34-46);...

In sum, in these essays I explore the self-similarity between levels, the fractal structure of reality, through an investigation of an inherent and unavoidable uncertainty which is unique to each level. These essays will demonstrate that as each level struggles to resolve its own inherent...

This volume – Predicting Crisis: Five Essays on the Mathematic Prediction of Economic and Social Crises – is the first of three sets of essays. In this first set the economic and social history of the United States is shown to be a “system of movement,” i.e. a logical and mathematic...

This paper summarizes “The Center and the Periphery: The Globalization of Financial Shocks," which presents a new approach to measure and understand systemic financial turbulences. We defined two measures of systemic disturbances: weak- and strong-form globalization and created the...

In this study, we begin by assessing the ability of sovereign credit ratings to anticipate crises. In addition, given the wave of sovereign credit ratings downgrades that have followed the crises in Asia, we investigate formally the extent to which credit ratings are reactive. Along the way, we...

In focusing on the 24 month window prior to the onset of the crisis, the criteria for ranking the indicators presented in our related work does not distinguish between a signal given 12 months prior to the crisis and one given one month prior to the crisis. In what follows we examine this issue,...

The preceding sections have predominantly focused on the antecedents of financial crises. Namely, the emphasis has been on the ability of a variety of indicators, including the credit ratings, to anticipate crises and characterize the extent to which a country is vulnerable. An application of...

Predicting the timing of currency and banking crises is likely to remain an elusive task for academics, financial market participants, and policymakers. Few foresaw the Asian crises and fewer still could have imagined their severity. However, recent events have highlighted the importance of...