, multiple equilibria with stable and unstable solutions at intermediate debt, and a single solution with dissuasively high risk … commodity export to GDP ratio, the size of growth shocks, the share of defaults in neighbouring countries, the risk-free rate … and investors’ risk aversion. Debt limits are highly sensitive to the expected recovery rate, reflecting the importance of …

on default risk are also investigated, showing that the rule of law, regulatory quality, control of corruption and voice … and accountability are also robustly linked with default risk. Regressions with the mortality of settlers as an instrument …

An epidemiologist calculating the risk of a localised epidemic becoming a global pandemic would investigate every … contact would underestimate the pandemic risk if the disease could also spread through the air. Likewise, calculating the … quantity of financial system risk requires practitioners to understand all of the channels through which small and local shocks …

yields would risk generating instability in the US shadow banking sector, and the financial system more generally, even if … strengthening the resilience of shadow banking institutions so that the risk of liquidity-induced fire sales is reduced. This should …

robust to alternative specifications of the lag structure, data frequency and the country composition of the largest region …