This paper presents a generalization of the DeGroot learning rule in which social learning can lead to polarization, even for connected networks. I first develop a model of biased assimilation in which the utility an agent receives from past decisions depends on current beliefs when uncertainty...

This paper studies an agent forming beliefs by translating data into signals about the truth of propositions. The agent faces ambiguity when she observes low-quality data yielding set-identified signals. Rules for decision-making under ambiguity choose the single belief generating an extreme...

While global trade talks have been making very little progress in recent years, the number of preferential trade agreements (PTAs) has grown rapidly, and many of these institutions are reaching much deeper into the domestic political arena than traditional multilateral trade liberalization....