The paper discusses a new, fully recursive approach to the adaptive modeling, forecasting and seasonal adjustment of nonstationary economic time-series. The procedure is based around a time variable parameter (TVP) version of the well known “component” or “structural” model. It employs a...

This article considers the possibilities for widespread use of municipal bonds to finance public sector infrastructure, with particular reference to Scotland. Provided the various control measures recommended in this article are in place, there can be few objections either in principle or...

The role of decision support systems in mitigating operational risks in firms is well established. However, there is a lack of investment in decision support systems in emerging markets, even though inadequate operational risk management is a key cause of discouraging external investment. This...

The contemporary understanding of public sector risk management entails a broadening of the traditional bureaucratic approach to risk beyond the boundaries of purely financial risks. However, evidence suggests that in reality public sector risk management does not always match the rhetoric. This...

This article considers the utilisation of the UK’s Prudential Borrowing Framework (PBF) and the associated Prudential Code for local government capital finance. It finds that the increased flexibility and local freedom are at the cost of less financial certainty in terms of the risks borne by...

The contemporary understanding of public sector risk management entails a broadening of the traditional bureaucratic approach to risk beyond the boundaries of purely financial risks. However, evidence suggests that in reality public sector risk management does not always match the rhetoric. This...