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Judgemental probability forecasts for personal and impersonal events

Wright, George - In: International journal of forecasting 5 (1989) 1, pp. 117-125

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10001088663

Do "big losses" in judgmental adjustments to statistical forecasts affect experts' behaviour?

Petropoulos, Fotios; Fildes, Robert; Goodwin, Paul - In: European journal of operational research : EJOR 249 (2016) 3, pp. 827-841

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011439098

Using a rolling training approach to improve judgmental extrapolations elicited from forecasters with technical knowledge

Petropoulos, Fotios; Goodwin, Paul; Fildes, Robert - In: International journal of forecasting 33 (2017) 1, pp. 314-324

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011755015

A note on upper bounds for forecast-value-added relative to naïve forecasts

Goodwin, Paul; Petropoulos, Fotios; Hyndman, Rob J. - In: Journal of the Operational Research Society : OR 68 (2017) 9, pp. 1082-1084

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011799306

On the asymmetry of the symmetric MAPE

Goodwin, Paul; Lawton, Richard - In: International journal of forecasting 15 (1999) 4, pp. 405-408

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10001428533

Debiasing forecasts : how useful is the unbiasedness test?

Goodwin, Paul; Lawton, Richard - In: International journal of forecasting 19 (2003) 3, pp. 467-475

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10001793029

Forecasting : theory and practice

Petropoulos, Fotios; Apiletti, Daniele; Assimakopoulos, V. - In: International journal of forecasting 38 (2022) 3, pp. 705-871

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013349395

Judgemental probability forecasts for personal and impersonal events

Wright, George; Ayton, Peter - In: International Journal of Forecasting 5 (1989) 1, pp. 117-125

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005428716

Assessing and improving judgemental probability forecasts

Ayton, Peter; Wright, George - In: Omega 15 (1987) 3, pp. 191-196

This paper discusses three characteristics of subjective probabilities, their consistency, coherence and calibration and shows how they are inter-related. We review research that has investigated these characteristics and evaluate methods that have been developed for the improvement of...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005333954

Judgmental probability forecasting in the immediate and medium term

Wright, George; Ayton, Peter - In: Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes 51 (1992) 3, pp. 344-363

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005318800