We revisit the apparent historical success of technical trading rules on daily prices of the Dow Jones index. First, we use the False Discovery Rate as a new approach to data snooping. The advantage of the FDR over existing methods is that it is more powerful and not restricted only to the best...

We introduce a new analytical approach to price American options. Using an explicit and intuitive proxy for the exercise rule, we derive tractable pricing formulas using a short-maturity asymptotic expansion. Depending on model parameters, this method can accurately price options with...

We develop a test of equality between two dependence structures estimated through empirical copulas. We provide inference for independent or paired samples. The multiplier central limit theorem is used for calculating p-values of the Cramér-von Mises test statistic. Finite sample properties are...

In this paper we discuss some statistical pitfalls that may occur in modeling cross-dependences with copulas in financial applications. In particular we focus on issues arising in the estimation and the empirical choice of copulas as well as in the design of time-dependent copulas.

Two well-known, but seemingly contradictory, features of exchange rates are thatthey are close to a random walk while at the same time exchange rate changesare predictable by interest rate differentials. In this paper we investigate whetherthese two features of the data may in fact be related....

This pap er intro duces a general framework for market mo dels, namedM arket M o del Approach, through the concept of admissible sets of for-ward swap rates spanning a given tenor structure. We relate this conceptto results in graph theory by showing that a set is admissible if and only ifthe...

While empirical evidence nds only a weak relationship between nominal exchangerates and macroeconomic fundamentals, forex markets participants often attribute ex-change rate movements to a macroeconomic variable. The variables that matter, how-ever, appear to change over time and some variable...

We develop a tailor made semiparametric asymmetric kernel density estimator for the estimation of actuarial loss distributions. The estimator is obtained by transforming the data with the generalized Champernowne distribution initially fitted to the data. Then the density of the transformed data...

We study the asymptotic properties of a Tikhonov Regularized (TiR) estimator of a functional parameter based on a minimum distance principle for nonparametric conditional moment restrictions. The estimator is computationally tractable and takes a closed form in the linear case. We derive its...

We analyze the problem of real optimal asset allo cation for a p ensionfund maximising the exp ected CRRA utility of its real disp osable wealth.The financial horizon of the analysis coincides with the random deathtime of a representative subscriber. We consider a very general settingwhere...