Using two data sets derived from German administrative data, including a linkedemployer-employee data set, we investigate the cyclicality of worker and job flows.The analysis stresses the importance of two-sided labour market heterogeneity inthis context, taking into account both observed and...

In this paper we analyse the properties of hierarchical Archimedean copulas. This classis a generalisation of the Archimedean copulas and allows for general non-exchangeable dependencystructures. We show that the structure of the copula can be uniquely recovered from all bivariate margins.We...

Systemic weather risk is a major obstacle for the formation of private (non-subsidized) crop insurance. This paper explores the possibility of spatial diversication ofinsurance by estimating the joint occurrence of unfavorable weather conditions in dierentlocations. For that purpose copula...

Motivated by the recurrent Neural Networks, this paper proposes a recurrent Support Vector Regression (SVR) procedure to forecast nonlinear ARMA model based simulated data and real data of financial returns. The forecasting ability of the recurrent SVR is compared with three competing methods,...

In this paper we provide a review of copula theory with applications to finance. We illustrate the idea on the bivariate framework and discuss the simple, elliptical and Archimedean classes of copulae. Since the copulae model the dependency structure between random variables, next we explain the...

Using an administrative data set containing daily information on individual workers' employment histories, we investigate how workers' labour market transitions are affected by international outsourcing. In order to do so, we estimate hazard rate models for match separations, as well as for...

Empirical studies have shown that a large number of financial asset returns exhibit fat tails and are often characterized by volatility clustering and asymmetry. Also revealed as a stylized fact is Long memory or long range dependence in market volatility, with significant impact on pricing and...

The volatility implied by observed market prices as a function of the strikeand time to maturity form an Implied Volatility Surface (IV S). Practicalapplications require reducing the dimension and characterize its dynamicsthrough a small number of factors. Such dimension reduction is...

The secular rise of European unemployment since the 1960s is hard to explain without reference to structural change. This is especially true in Germany, where industrial employment has declined by more than 30% and service sector employment has more than doubled over the past three decades....

Predicting default probabilities is important for firms and banks to operate successfully and to estimate their specific risks. There are many reasons to use nonlinear techniques for predicting bankruptcy from financial ratios. Here we propose the so called Support Vector Machine (SVM) to...