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The empirical literature is very far from any consensus about the appropriate model for oil price forecasting that … frequencies on a common sample and common data. Fourth, we evaluate the forecasting performance of each selected model using … producing accurate forecasts of the WTI spot price. -- Oil Price ; WTI Spot and Futures Prices ; Forecasting ; Econometric …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009382869
The empirical literature is very far from any consensus about the appropriate model for oil price forecasting that … frequencies on a common sample and common data. Fourth, we evaluate the forecasting performance of each selected model using …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013091764
Oil market VAR models have become the standard tool for understanding the evolution of the real price of oil and its impact in the macro economy. As this literature has expanded at a rapid pace, it has become increasingly difficult for mainstream economists to understand the differences between...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012174841
The Kilian and Murphy (2014) structural vector autoregressive model has become the workhorse model for the analysis of oil markets. I explore various refinements and extensions of this model, including the effects of (1) correcting an error in the measure of global real economic activity, (2)...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012230336
Oil market VAR models have become the standard tool for understanding the evolution of the real price of oil and its impact in the macro economy. As this literature has expanded at a rapid pace, it has become increasingly difficult for mainstream economists to understand the differences between...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012230527
Oil market VAR models have become the standard tool for understanding the evolution of the real price of oil and its impact in the macro economy. As this literature has expanded at a rapid pace, it has become increasingly difficult for mainstream economists to understand the differences between...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012839764
important approach to forecasting the real price of oil which has not been studied systematically to date. This approach is …. Our objective is to evaluate this proposition. We derive from first principles a number of alternative forecasting model … not all product spread models are useful for out-of-sample forecasting, but some models are, even at horizons between one …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009781115
that asymmetries show up in their unconditional distribution, as well as in their unconditional copula. The VaR forecasting …-of-sample. -- Copula functions ; Forecasting ; Value-At-Risk …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008810287
that asymmetries show up in their unconditional distribution, as well as in their unconditional copula. The VaR forecasting …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013095821
We study the effects of crude oil price shocks on the stock market volatility of the G7 economies. We rely on a structural VAR model to identify the causes underlying the oil price shocks and gauge the differential impact that oil supply and oil demand innovations have on financial volatility....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011438638