A stable international monetary system has emerged since the early 1990s. A large number of industrial and a growing number of developing countries now have domestic inflation targets administered by independent and transparent central banks. These countries place few restrictions on capital...

If one ranks cities by population, the rank of a city is inversely related to its size, a well-documented phenomenon known as Zipf's Law. Further, the growth rate of a city's population is uncorrelated with its size, another well-known characteristic known as Gibrat's Law. In this paper, I show...

I search for a 'scale' effect in countries. I use a panel data set that includes 200 countries over forty years and link the population of a country to a host of economic and social phenomena. Using both graphical and statistical techniques, I search for an impact of size on the level of income,...

Previous time-series studies have shown evidence of mean-reversion in real exchange rates. Deviations from purchasing power parity (PPP) appear to have half-lives of approximately four years. The long samples required for statistical significance are unavailable for most currencies, however, and...

This Paper estimates the effect on international trade of three multilateral organizations intended to increase trade: 1) the World Trade Organization (WTO) and its predecessor the Generalized Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT); 2) the International Monetary Fund (IMF); and 3) the...

34 recent studies have investigated the effect of currency union on trade, resulting in 754 point estimates of the effect. This Paper is a quantitative attempt to summarize the current state of debate; meta-analysis is used to combine the disparate estimates. The chief findings are that: a) the...

Regressions of ex-post changes in floating exchange rates on appropriate interest differentials typically imply that the high interest rate currency tends to appreciate - the `forward discount puzzle'. Using data from the European Monetary System we find that a large part of the forward discount...

This paper provides evidence on the effects of capital controls. We show that controls have been associated with significant differences in macroeconomic behaviour, especially in monetary policy. While they have not prevented speculative attacks, they have provided the breathing space needed to...

This paper presents an empirical analysis of speculative attacks on pegged exchange rates in 22 countries between 1967 and 1992. We define speculative attacks or crises as large movements in exchange rates, interest rates, and international reserves. We develop stylized facts concerning the...

This Paper develops a simple but general methodology to estimate the expected intertemporal marginal rate of substitution or ‘EMRS’, using only data on asset prices and returns. Our empirical strategy is general, and allows the EMRS to vary arbitrarily over time. A novel feature of our...