not the case. Although unemployment is low, the labor market is not 'tight'. On the contrary, we show that what matters … for wage growth are the non-employment rate and the under-employment rate. Both are high and act as brakes on wage growth …

effects and lagged unemployment. We also use industrial firm's expectations of future employment, which are also predictive of …Unemployment is notoriously difficult to predict. In previous studies, once country and year fixed effects are added to … panel estimates, few variables predict changes in unemployment rates. Using panel data for 29 European countries collected …