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The study analyses the characteristics of professional exchange rate forecasts for the € /US-$ rate. The results indicate that the quality of forecasts produced by professional economists is rather poor and incompatible with the rational expectations hypothesis. This dismal result is according...
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Seit seiner Einführung am 1. Januar 1999 hat der Euro über ein Viertel seines Außenwertes verloren. Nachdem alle auf …, hat die These, dass die Schwäche darauf beruht, dass es bisher nur einen virtuellen Euro gibt, an Glaubwürdigkeit gewonnen … Finance" zu erklären. Aus der Sicht dieser Theorie könnte die Bargeldeinführung zum Vorteil des Euro ausschlagen, aber mit …
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exchange rate models for the synthetic euro. Using the same data set, variable definitions and sample period offers the … ECB's small-sized euro area wide macro-economic model. In this order the approaches feature an increasing degree of … results confirm the high likelihood for the euro having been undervalued in Q4 2000, while stressing the significant empirical …
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This paper applies the identified VAR methodology to synthetic euro area data from 1980 till 1998 to study the macro …-economic effects of an unexpected change in monetary policy in the euro area. The focus is on the area-wide monetary transmission. It … is shown that the overall macro-economic effects of a monetary policy shock in the euro area are very similar to those …
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