The growing use of the European Currency Unit (ECU) in private transactions is often expected to produce a decisive impetus towards monetary integration within Europe. On the other hand, critics warn of the monetary risks of increased private use of the ECU. What are the opportunities and risks...

The study analyses the characteristics of professional exchange rate forecasts for the € /US-$ rate. The results indicate that the quality of forecasts produced by professional economists is rather poor and incompatible with the rational expectations hypothesis. This dismal result is according...