This paper develops a rational expectations model with multiple equilibrium unemployment rates where the price of capital may be unbounded above. I argue that this property is an important feature of any rational-agent explanation of a financial crisis, since for the expansion phase of the...

This paper argues that the stock market crash of 2008, triggered by a collapse in house prices, caused the Great Recession. The paper has three parts. First, it provides evidence of a high correlation between the value of the stock market and the unemployment rate in U.S. data since 1929....

This paper presents a theory of the monetary transmission mechanism in a monetary version of Farmer’s (2009) model in which there are multiple equilibrium unemployment rates. The model has two equations in common with the new-Keynesian model; the optimizing IS curve and the policy rule. It...

This note shows that a big stock market crash, in the absence of central bank intervention, will be followed by a major recession one to four quarters later. I establish this fact by studying the forecasting ability of three models of the unemployment rate. I show that the connection between...

Central banks throughout the world predict inflation with new-Keynesian models where, after a shock, the unemployment rate returns to its so called 'natural rate’. That assumption is called the Natural Rate Hypothesis (NRH). This paper reviews a body of work, published over the last decade,...

This paper distinguishes between two kinds of Endogenous Business Cycle models, and discusses the evolution from first generation EBC1 models to second generation EBC2 models. I argue that EBC1 models, which display dynamic indeterminacy, are part of the evolution of modern macroeconomics that...

In order to explore the optimal taxation of low-skilled labour, we extend the standard model of optimal non-linear income taxation in the presence of quasi-linear preferences in leisure by allowing for in-voluntary unemployment, job search, an exogenous welfare benefit, and a non-utilitarian...

Does capital-embodied technological change play an important role in shaping labour market inequalities? This Paper addresses the question in a model with vintage capital and search/matching frictions where costly capital investment leads to large heterogeneity in productivity among vacancies in...

We present a theoretical and empirical analysis of different types of active labour market policies (ALMP). In our empirical analysis we use data on 20 OECD countries covering the time period 1985-99. We find that labour market training is the most effective program to bring down unemployment....

This Paper presents a theory and an empirical investigation on cyclical fluctuations in workplace accidents. The theory is based on the idea that reporting an accident dents the reputation of a worker and raises the probability that he is fired. Therefore a country with a high or an increasing...