In July 2002 the First International Conference on "Probing the Future: Developing Organisational Foresight in the Knowledge Economy", was organised by Hari Tsoukas and Jill Sheppard, and held at the University of Strathclyde, Graduate School of Business, in Glasgow. This conference resulted in...

This paper discusses three characteristics of subjective probabilities, their consistency, coherence and calibration and shows how they are inter-related. We review research that has investigated these characteristics and evaluate methods that have been developed for the improvement of...