Dieser Bericht wurde erarbeitet von folgenden wirtschaftswissenschaftlichen Forschungsinstituten: Deutsches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Berlin, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung, Nürnberg, Institut für Weltwirtschaft an der Universität Kiel, Institut für...

Using a real-time data set for German GDP over the period from 1973 to 1998 we calculate various measures of real-time output gaps and use these to calibrate and estimate Taylor-type reaction functions for the Bundesbank. Most of the reaction functions we find fit the Bundesbank's actual policy,...

When nontraded goods prices are accounted for consistently and genuine stock data on bilateral foreign asset holdings is employed, a modified sticky-price exchange rate model by far outperforms the benchmark random walk-model in empirically forecasting the D-mark/dollar parity out of sample....

This paper proposes an approach for estimating the uncertainty associated with model-based macroeconomic forecasts. We argue that estimated forecast intervals should account for the uncertainty arising from selecting the specification of an empirical forecasting model from the sample data. To...