This study compares the performance of the ISD, the GARCH (1,1), the historical volatility estimates and of two lagged trading volume measures for predicting the Swiss Stock Market Index's (SMI) volatility. The ISD has a superior daily informational content than the GARCH(1,1) estimate and...

We construct a dynamic competitive model with futures markets where price volatility comes from information arrival and noise trading. In this model, we address three issues: What does informational efficiency mean in a multi-period setting? How do information arrival and noise trading interact...