Member States are permanently excluded. However, there remains a risk that France and Germany will use the idea of a core Europe to cajole others into accepting their demands. Such a strategy would be deeply divisive for the Union. Franco-German cooperation is welcome if u0096 and only if u0096...

In this paper we propose a relatively simple procedure to predict Euro-zone industrial production using mostly data derived from the business surveys of the three major economies within the European Monetary Union (France, Germany, and Italy). The basic idea is that of estimating business...