With this work we try to analyse the agglomeration process in Portugal, using the New Economic Geography models, in a linear and in a non linear way. In a non linear way, of referring, as summary conclusion, that with this work the existence of increasing returns to scale and low transport cost,...

This work aims to test the Verdoorn Law, with the alternative specifications of (1)Kaldor (1966), for the 28 NUTS III Portuguese in the period 1995 to 1999. It is intended to test, also in this work, the alternative interpretation of (2)Rowthorn (1975) about the Verdoorn's Law for the same...

The aim of this paper is to present a further contribution, with panel data, to the analysis of absolute convergence ( and ), associated with the neoclassical theory, and conditional, associated with endogenous growth theory, of the sectoral productivity at regional level. Presenting some...

Several methods have been proposed in the last few years for evaluating uncertainty in forecasts produced by nonlinear econometric models. Some methods resort to Monte Carlo, while others resort to different simulation techniques. This work aims at comparing these methods by means of experiments...

When econometric models are used as forecasting tools, forecast errors can be decomposed into several components, one of which is due to estimation errors, while another one is due to the stochastic nature of the variables to be predicted. Conditional on model's specification and on the...

Most of the methods proposed in the literature for evaluating forecast uncertainty in econometric models need an estimate of the structural coefficiencs covariance matrix among input data. When estimation is performed with full information maximum likelihood, alternative estimators of such a...

Full information maximum likelihood estimation of econometric models, linear and nonlinear in variables, is performed by means of two gradient algorithms, using either the Hessian matrix or a computationally simpler approximation. In the first part of the paper, the behavior of the two methods...

It is purpose of this paper to evidence, in the behaviour of the Mini-DMS model for the French economy, some stochastic properties which may confirm, strengthen or sometimes contradict the results obtained from the standard simulation analysis, which is purely deterministic. In particular, the...

Multipliers are often used for selecting alternative policies in economic planning and forecasting. Particular variables like employment, trade balance, inflation or government budget usually impose constraints on the policy action. Therefore a criterion to be preferred to the raw multiplier...

The evaluation of policy actions by means of a large scale econometric model often begins with the analysis of multipliers. A large value of a multiplier, with the right sign, suggests that the policy instrument should be very effective in moving up or down the given target variable. However,...