When econometric models are used as forecasting tools, forecast errors can be decomposed into several components, one of which is due to estimation errors, while another one is due to the stochastic nature of the variables to be predicted. Conditional on model's specification and on the...

A well known macroeconometric model of the Italian economy is updated to produce forecasts at 1974.

Results of stochastic simulation experiments are described in this paper. The model experimented with is a large scale macroeconometric model, developed at the University of Bonn for the German economy (Model 5).

Experiments of stochastic simulation on a macro model of the Italian economy; this paper describes the first results produced by the research team.

Five alternative techniques have been applied to measure the degree of uncertainty associated with the forecasts produced by a macro-model of the French economy, the Mini-DMS developed at INSEE. They are bootstrap, analytic simulation on coefficients, Monte Carlo on coefficients, parametric...

This paper is concerned with the contribution to forecast errors of errors in the estimated structural coefficients of a macro-econometric model (simultaneous equations). Its main purpose is to perform, on several "real-world" models, an empirical comparison of alternative techniques available...

Experiments of stochastic simulation on a nonlinear macroeconometric model are described in this paper. The results are used both for improving the validation of a model of the Italian economy and for revisiting the heuristic value of the stochastic simulation methodology.