Several methods have been proposed in the last few years for evaluating uncertainty in forecasts produced by nonlinear econometric models. Some methods resort to Monte Carlo, while others resort to different simulation techniques. This work aims at comparing these methods by means of experiments...

Multipliers are often used for selecting alternative policies in economic planning and forecasting. Particular variables like employment, trade balance, inflation or government budget usually impose constraints on the policy action. Therefore a criterion to be preferred to the raw multiplier...

The evaluation of policy actions by means of a large scale econometric model often begins with the analysis of multipliers. A large value of a multiplier, with the right sign, suggests that the policy instrument should be very effective in moving up or down the given target variable. However,...

This paper shows how to compute asymptotic standard errors of the characteristic roots of a nonlinear econometric model. The system of simultaneous equations is linearized in the neighborhood of a given point, then characteristic roots and related standard errors are computed.

A method for evaluating the reliability of policy recommendations derived from a linear dynamic structural econometric model in the framework of the linear quadratic control problem has been recently proposed by Friedmann (1980, 1981). The method analytically derives the asymptotic distribution...

A well known macroeconometric model of the Italian economy is updated to produce forecasts at 1974.

Some analytic simulation techniques for the analysis of the reduced form and of the dynamic properties of econometric models are described. Comparisons are made with analytical methods available for linear models.

This paper deals with methods to estimate standard errors of dynamic multipliers. These methods can be applied to nonlinear macroeconometric models, thus extending methods available in the literature for linear models.

In econometric models specified as systems of simultaneous equations, forecast errors can be regarded as random variables whose variances can be investigated, analyzed and estimated. This book summarizes results available in the literature for linear and nonlinear econometric models, when...

Numerical simulation methods can overcome the difficulties and limitations of analytical methods, when analyzing dynamic properties of econometric models.