Replaced with revised version of paper 05/29/04.

Governments are under increasing pressure to deliver results. Therefore, it is important to evaluate the effectiveness, efficiency and relevance of the public service in implementing policies and programmes for social betterment. Without such evaluations, it is difficult to ensure that evidence...

In this poster a Bayesian estimation framework for a non-stationary Markov model is developed for situations where sample data with observed transition between classes (micro data) and aggregate population shares (macro data) are available. Posterior distributions on transition probabilities are...

We formulate and estimate a farm level simulation model of agricultural crop production, and apply it to a scenario with increasing yield variability. The objective function is of the mean-variance utility type with a positive mathematical programming (PMP) cost function, and it is estimated...

We develop a Bayesian framework for estimating non-stationary Markov models in situations where macro population data is available only on the proportion of individuals residing in each state, but micro-level sample data is available on observed transitions between states. Posterior...

Presumed portfolio benefits of commodities and the availability of index fund-type investment products increase attractiveness of commodity markets for financial traders. But resulting “index trading” strategies are suspected to inflate commodity prices above their fundamental value. We use...

This paper reviews and discusses the more recent literature and application of Positive Mathematical Programming in the context of agricultural supply models. Specifically, advances in the empirical foundation of parameter specifications as well as the economic rationalisation of PMP models...

Variable eating quality was identified as a major contributor to declining Australian beef consumption in the early 1990s. The primary issue was the inability to predict the eating quality of cooked beef before consumption. A R&D program funded by industry and Meat and Livestock Australia...

The increased interest in Integrated Assessment (IA) of agricultural systems reflects the growing complexity of policy objectives and corresponding impacts related to this sector. The paper contemplates on the status of quantitative tools for IA in agriculture, drawing on recent European...

The addition of commodities to financial portfolios and resulting weight adjustments may create volatility linkages between commodity and financial markets, especially during financial crises. Also, biofuel mandates are suspected to integrate agricultural and energy markets. We calculate...