Small-scale VARs are widely used in macroeconomics for forecasting U.S. output, prices, and interest rates. However …, recent work suggests these models may exhibit instabilities. As such, a variety of estimation or forecasting methods might be … effectiveness of such methods in real time forecasting. We use forecasts from univariate time series models, the Survey of …

volatility specifications, in terms of point forecasting to some degree and density forecasting to a greater degree …

the pandemic period, as well as for earlier subsamples of relatively high volatility. In historical forecasting, outlier …