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Survey-based indicators vs. hard data : what improves export forecasts in Europe?

Lehmann, Robert - 2015

We evaluate whether survey-based indicators produce lower forecast errors for export growth than indicators obtained … from hard data such as price and cost competitiveness measures. Our pseudo out-of-sample analyzes and forecast encompassing …, large country differences in the forecast accuracy of survey-based indicators emerge. These differences are mainly explained …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011479957

Foresight methodologies : application to the housing market

Castro, Eduardo Anselmo de; Marques, Joao Lourenço; … - 2012

The housing market is complex, multidimensional and depends on the variability of external factors and the amount of information available to the agents involved in the process. Despite the challenges associated to this theme, its relevance in the socioeconomic and territorial context, sustains...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011506409

Designing the housing market for 2030 : a foresight and econometric approach : 53rd ERSA Congress : ersa : regional integration: Europe, the Mediterranean an the world economy : 27...

Marques, Joao Lourenço; Viegas, Miguel; Borges, Monique; … - 2013

The paper presents a foresight analysis methodology and its empirical application in the context of housing market. This work was developed in the context of a wider research project, "Drivers Of housiNg demand in Portuguese Urban sysTem" - DONUT, which analyses the Portuguese housing market....

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011531123

Forecasting GDP at the regional level with many predictors

Lehmann, Robert; Wohlrabe, Klaus - 2013

quarterly frequency. We forecast gross domestic product (GDP) for two German states (Free State of Saxony and Baden …. Our results show that we can significantly increase forecast accuracy compared to an autoregressive benchmark model, both …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011685344