Disagreement in inflation expectations observed from survey data varies systematically over time in a way that reflects … the level and variance of current inflation. This paper offers a simple explanation for these facts based on asymmetries … in the forecasters' costs of over- and under-predicting inflation. Our model implies (i) biased forecasts; (ii) positive …

Recent empirical work documents substantial disagreement in inflation expectations obtained from survey data … current inflation. This paper offers a simple explanation for these facts based on asymmetries in the forecasters' costs of … over- and under-predicting inflation. Our model implies biased forecasts with positive serial correlation in forecast …

This empirical note provides updated empirical evidence regarding whether a higher inflation rate of real prices on … crude oil and whether real oil price shocks led to higher domestic inflation in the U.S. over the 1965-2012 period. Using … autoregressive two stage least squares estimation, the analysis finds preliminary evidence that the domestic inflation rate over this …

Recent empirical work documents substantial disagreement in inflation expectations obtained from survey data … current inflation. This paper offers a simple explanation for these facts based on asymmetries in the forecaster's costs of … over- and under-predicting inflation. Our model implies biased forecasts with positive serial correlation in forecast …