We develop a dynamic factor model with Markov switching to examine secular and business cycle fluctuations in the U.S. unemployment rates. We extract the common dynamics amongst unemployment rates disaggregated for 7 age groups. The framework allows analysis of the contribution of demographic...

We develop a dynamic factor model with Markov switching to examine secular and business cycle fluctuations in the U.S. unemployment rates. We extract the common dynamics amongst unemployment rates disaggregated for 7 age groups. The framework allows analysis of the contribution of demographic...

This paper provides a framework for the early assessment of current U.S. nominal GDP growth, which has been considered a potential new monetary policy target. The nowcasts are computed using the exact amount of information that policy-makers have available at the time predictions are made....

We provide an extensive analysis of the predictive ability of financial volatility for economic activity. We consider monthly measures of realized and implied volatility from the stock and bond markets. In a dynamic factor framework, we extract the common long-run component of volatility that is...

This paper provides an extensive analysis of the predictive ability of financial volatility measures for economic activity. We construct monthly measures of stock and bond market volatility from daily returns and model volatility as composed of a long-run component that is common across all...

Multiple-equilibria macroeconomic models suggest that consumers and investors' perceptions about the state of the economy may be important independent factors for business cycles. In this paper, we examine empirically the interrelations between waves of optimism and pessimism and subsequent...

Multiple-equilibria macroeconomic models suggest that consumers and investors' perceptions about the state of the economy may be important independent factors for business cycles. In this paper, we examine empirically the interrelations between waves of optimism and pessimism and subsequent...

This paper uses several procedures to date and analyze the Brazilian business cycle and growth cycle. In particular, a Markov switching model is fitted to quarterly and annual real production data. The smoothed probabilities of the Markov states are used as predictive rules to define different...

As of March 2002 the U.S. economy is already showing signs of breaking out of the 2001 recession. However, the NBER announced in February 2002 that "the Committee will wait until a substantial period of expansion has elapsed before declaring that a turning point in the economy is a true trough,...

This paper provides an extensive analysis of the predictive ability of financial volatility measures for economic activity. We construct monthly measures of aggregated and industry-level stock volatility, and bond market volatility from daily returns. We model log financial volatility as...