We compare the out-of-sample forecasting accuracy of the time-varying hazard model developed by Shumway (2001) and the one-period probit model used by Cole and Gunther (1998). Using data on U.S. bank failures from 1985 – 1992, we find that, from an econometric perspective, the hazard model is...

In this study, we analyze why U.S. commercial banks failed during the recent financial crisis. We find that proxies for commercial real estate investments, as well as traditional proxies for the CAMELS components, do an excellent job in explaining the failures of banks that were closed during...

Co-movements in equity markets may reflect either financial contagion or stock market integration. While the former tends to demonstrate financial stability and resiliency, the latter has played an important role for stock market development. This paper attempts to investigate the co-movements,...

Our study measures co-movements in Islamic and conventional equity markets, to discover contagion and to measure integration level. We apply wavelet decomposition to unveil the multi-horizon nature of co-movement. We find that the subprime crisis generates fundamental-based contagion for both...