The current paper aims to examine strategic predictions (with forecast horizons greater than six months) via the empirical probability (EP) technique. This technique was proposed initially to examine short-term tactical predictions (with forecast horizons less than three months), as set out in...

Despite the importance of probability assessment methods in behavioral decision theory and decision analysis, little attention has been directed at evaluating their reliability and validity. In fact, no comprehensive study of reliability has been undertaken. Since reliability is a necessary...

ln this study we compare the probability judgment accuracy of subjects from the United States and Turkey. Three different response modes were employed - numerical probabilities, pie diagrams, and odds. The questions employed in the study were restricted to two-alternative. general-knowledge...

Decision makers and forecasters often receive advice from different sources including human experts and statistical methods. This research examines, in the context of stock price forecasting, how the apparent source of the advice affects the attention that is paid to it when the mode of delivery...

Research has suggested that outcome feedback is less effective than other forms of feedback in promoting learning by users of decision support systems. However, if circumstances can be identified where the effectiveness of outcome feedback can be improved, this offers considerable advantages,...

A survey of 124 users of externally produced financial and economic forecasts in Turkey investigated their expectations and perceptions of forecast quality and their reasons for judgmentally adjusting forecasts. Expectations and quality perceptions mainly related to the timeliness of forecasts,...