This paper develops and applies tools to assess multivariate aspects of Bayesian Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) model forecasts and their ability to predict comovements among key macroeconomic variables. We construct posterior predictive checks to evaluate conditional and...

This paper develops and illustrates a simple method to generate a DSGE model-based forecast for variables that do not explicitly appear in the model (non-core variables). We use auxiliary regressions that resemble measurement equations in a dynamic factor model to link the non-core variables to...

Data from a heterogeneous-agents economy with incomplete asset markets and indivisible labor supply are simulated under various fiscal policy regimes and an approximating representative-agent model is estimated. Preference and technology parameter estimates of the representative-agent model are...

This paper assesses biases in policy predictions due to the lack of invariance of "structural'' parameters in representative-agent models. We simulate data under various fiscal policy regimes from a heterogeneous-agents economy with incomplete asset markets and indivisible labor supply....

This paper assesses biases in policy predictions due to the lack of invariance of ``structural'' parameters in representative-agent models. We simulate data under various fiscal policy regimes from a heterogeneous-agents economy with incomplete asset markets and indivisible labor supply....

Data from a heterogeneous-agents economy with incomplete asset markets and indivisible labor supply are simulated under various scal policy regimes and an approximating representative-agent model is estimated. Preference and technology parameter estimates of the representative-agent model are...

We develop a new class of nonlinear time-series models to identify nonlinearities in the data and to evaluate nonlinear DSGE models. U.S. output growth and the federal funds rate display nonlinear conditional mean dynamics, while inflation and nominal wage growth feature conditional...

Research Bulletin 2010/01/01: Equality and Discrimination: Lessons from a Research Programme and a Conference, by Frances McGinnity & Helen Russell Research Bulletin 2010/01/02: Creating a Health Promoting Environment: The Role of Food Access, by Richard Layte Research Bulletin 2010/01/03: The...

Research Bulletin 2011/2/1: The Macro-economic Impact of Changing the Rate of Corporation Tax, by Thomas Conefrey and John Fitz Gerald Research Bulletin 2011/2/2: The Banking Sector and Recovery in the EU Economy, by Ray Barrell, Tatiana Fic, John FitzGerald, Ali Orazgani and Rachel Whitworth...

Executive Summary Special Article: Irish Government Debt and Implied Debt Dynamics: 2011-2015, by John FitzGerald Special Article: User Cost and Irish House Prices, by David Duffy Research Bulletin 20110301: Selling State Assets: Three Options Research Bulletin 20110302: Parents, Children and...