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This paper develops a model of policy regime uncertainty and its consequences for stabilizing expectations. Because of … learning dynamics, uncertainty about monetary and fiscal policy is shown to restrict, relative to a rational expectations …
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This paper is a contribution to the analysis of optimal monetary policy. It begins with a critical assessment of the existing literature, arguing that most work is based on implausible models of inflation-output dynamics. It then suggests that this problem may be solved with some recent...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010293440
Under rational expectations, monetary policy is generally highly effective in stabilizing the economy. Aggregate demand management operates through the expectations hypothesis of the term structure: Anticipated movements in future short-term interest rates control current demand. This paper...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010333054
assume that both the central bank and the private sector face uncertainty about the correct model of the economy and have to … learn. A transparent central bank can reduce one source of uncertainty for private agents by communicating its policy rule …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010283330
Central bank communication plays an important role in shaping market participants' expectations. This paper studies a simple nonlinear model of monetary policy in which agents have incomplete information about the economic environment. It shows that agents' learning and the dynamics of the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010283511
the policy regime using historical data. Regime uncertainty substantially narrows, relative to a rational expectations … uncertainty about the prevailing monetary policy regime improves stabilization policy, enlarging the menu of policy options …
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