Disagreement in inflation expectations observed from survey data varies systematically over time in a way that reflects … the level and variance of current inflation. This paper offers a simple explanation for these facts based on asymmetries … in the forecasters' costs of over- and under-predicting inflation. Our model implies (i) biased forecasts; (ii) positive …

out-of-sample forecasting exercise for U.S. GDP growth and inflation suggests that models that allow for parameter …

pretesting tool. Through a set of Monte Carlo simulations and three empirical applications to house prices, CPI inflation, and …