This paper studies the role of the German economy for the existence of the so called European business cycle, a term referring to the regularly observed synchronization of the national business cycles in Europe. Using a three-country general equilibrium model, we are able to simulate impulse...

This paper studies the role of the German economy for the existence of the so called European business cycle, a term referring to the regularly observed synchronization of the national business cycles in Europe. Using a three-country general equilibrium model, we are able to simulate impulse...

Using OECD composite leading indicators (CLI), we assess empirically whether the ability of the country-specific CLIs to predict economic activity has diminished in recent years, e.g. due to rapid advances in globalisation. Overall, we find evidence that the CLI encompasses useful information...

Depending on how it is structured, the introduction of a European unemployment insurance within the euro area could make a significant contribution to stabilizing economic developments. This even applies to a relatively small-scale system (based on the volume of transfers) with a maximum...

The German economy has veered back on an upward course, after weak growth in the summer semester 2014. In this projection, real GDP is estimated to grow by 1.5 percent in 2014, by 1.4 percent in 2015 and by 1.7 percent in 2016. Inflation is projected to remain low, with 0.9 percent in 2014, 0.7...

The German economy continues to recover, and will grow by 2.2 percent in 2015. With slightly abated increases, the annual growth rate will be 1.9 percent in 2016. Driven by this favorable economic development, the unemployment rate will further decline, to 6.4 percent this year and 6.1 percent...

The German economy continues to recover, and will grow by 2.2 percent in 2015 and by 1.9 percent in 2016. The unemployment rate will further decline, to 6.4 percent this year and 6.1percent in 2016. Inflation, which averages 0.5 percent this year, will be substantially dampened by the slump in...

Das DIW Berlin prognostiziert für die deutsche Wirtschaft für 2011 ein Wachstum von 2,7 Prozent, im Jahr 2012 dürfte der Zuwachs noch 1,4 Prozent betragen. Besonders im ersten Vierteljahr 2011 dürfte bei der Wirtschaftsleistung ein deutliches Plus von knapp einem Prozent gegenüber dem...

Das DIW Berlin prognostiziert für die deutsche Wirtschaft im Jahr 2010 ein Wachstum von 3,4 Prozent, im Jahr 2011 werden es 2,0 Prozent sein. Der Aufschwung nach der schwersten Rezession der Nachkriegszeit verläuft damit kräftig, auch wenn die hohen Wachstumsraten der ersten Jahreshälfte...