In contrast to conventional model selection criteria, the Focused Information Criterion (FIC) allows for the purpose-specific choice of model specifications. This accommodates the idea that one kind of model might be highly appropriate for inferences on a particular focus parameter, but not for...

We assess the bivariate relation between money growth and inflation in the euro area and the United States using hybrid time-varying parameter Bayesian VAR models. Model selection based on marginal likelihoods suggests that the relation is statistically unstable across time in both regions. The...

This chapter reviews Bayesian methods for inference and forecasting with VAR models. Bayesian inference and, by extension, forecasting depends on numerical methods for simulating from the posterior distribution of the parameters and special attention is given to the implementation of the...