Showing 1 - 10 of 98
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009728606
We systematically examine the comparative predictive performance of a number of linear and non-linear models for stock and bond returns in the G7 countries. Besides Markov switching, threshold autoregressive (TAR), and smooth transition autoregressive (STAR) regime switching models, we also...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005418619
We perform a comprehensive examination of the recursive, comparative predictive performance of a number of linear and non-linear models for UK stock and bond returns. We estimate Markov switching, threshold autoregressive (TAR), and smooth transition autoregressive (STR) regime switching models,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008690986
The paper uses a reduced-form vector autoregressive framework to study the effects of quantitative easing and operation “twist”, as well as a conventional monetary expansion, on corporate bond yields and spreads. We construct rating- and maturity-based weekly bond portfolios using TRACE and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011065847
type="main" xml:id="obes12035-abs-0001" <title type="main">Abstract</title> <p>We perform a comprehensive examination of the recursive, comparative predictive performance of linear and nonlinear models for UK stock and bond returns. We estimate Markov switching, threshold autoregressive (TAR) and smooth transition...</p>
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011031967
This paper argues that dividend yield stock return predictability is time-varying. We conjecture that such time-variation is linked to the business cycle. Employing monthly data for US sector portfolios we estimate 5-year rolling fixed window predictive regressions. The resulting series of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010617318
Recent research [e.g., DeMiguel, Garlappi and Uppal, (2009a), Rev. Fin. Studies] has cast doubts on the out-of-sample performance of optimizing portfolio strategies relative to a naive, equally-weighted ones. However, most of the existing results concern the simple case in which an investor has...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008835036
Welfare gains to long-horizon investors may derive from time diversification that exploits non-zero intemporal return correlations associated with predictable returns. Real estate may thus become more desirable if its returns are negatively serially correlated. While it could be important for...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010277881
We systematically examine the comparative predictive performance of a number of alternative linear and non-linear models for stock and bond returns in the G7 countries. Besides Markov switching, threshold autoregressive (TAR), and smooth transition autoregressive (STAR) regime switching...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010277939
We perform a comprehensive examination of the recursive, comparative predictive performance of a number of linear and non-linear models for UK stock and bond returns. We estimate Markov switching, threshold autoregressive (TAR), and smooth transition autoregressive (STR) regime switching models,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010285857