In most countries, equity is a cheap source of funding for a country's largest financial institutions. On average, the stocks of the top 10% financial companies in a country account for over a quarter of total market capitalization, but these stocks earn returns that are significantly lower than...

"We use bank stock returns to develop an ex-ante measure of the distortion created by the implicit collective guarantee extended to large U.S. financial institutions. The average return on a stock portfolio that goes long in the largest U.S. commercial banks and short in the smallest banks is...

The largest commercial bank stocks, ranked by total size of the balance sheet, have significantly lower risk-adjusted returns than small- and medium-sized bank stocks, even though large banks are significantly more levered. We uncover a size factor in the component of bank returns that is...

The largest commercial bank stocks, ranked by the total size of the balance sheet, have significantly lower risk-adjusted returns than small- and medium-sized bank stocks, even though large banks are significantly more levered. We uncover a size factor in the component of bank returns that is...

The largest commercial bank stocks, ranked by total size of the balance sheet, have significantly lower risk-adjusted returns than small- and medium-sized bank stocks, even though large banks are significantly more levered. We uncover a size factor in the component of bank returns that is...

We show that at-the-money implied volatility of options on futures of 5-year Treasury notes (Treasury ‘yield implied volatility') predicts both the growth rate and volatility of gross domestic product, as well as of other macroeconomic variables, like industrial production, consumption, and...

Higher bank credit growth implies that excess returns of bank stocks over the next one year are lower by nearly 3%. Credit growth tracks bank stock returns over the business cycle and explains nearly 14% of the variation in bank stock returns over a 1-year horizon. I argue that the predictive...

Higher bank credit growth implies that excess returns of bank stocks over the next one year are lower by nearly 3%. Credit growth tracks bank stock returns over the business cycle and explains nearly 14% of the variation in bank stock returns over a 1-year horizon. I argue that the predictive...